↖  斯坦福大学福山教授对俄罗斯侵略乌克兰战争的预测..


-loading- -loading- -loading-

2022-03-14 , 3703 , 116 , 153

[编按:转载于 americanpurpose.com/Francis Fukuyama, 2022-03-10. Preparing for Defeat.]


前情

----

美国斯坦福大学的政治学家福山教授曾经预言民主制度的胜出,被认为预言不准。他于2022年3月10日对俄国入侵乌克兰的局势的未来发展做出他称为 “斗胆冒昧” 的系列预测。

以下是他的原文翻译。原载于 《美国的目的》(American Purpose)。



正文

----

准备迎接失败


我是在北马其顿斯科普里写这篇文章的,上周我一直在那里教授我们的领导力发展学院的一门课程。乌克兰战争后,这里的可用信息没有什么不同,除了我在一个相邻的时区,以及巴尔干半岛比欧洲其他地区更支持普京的事实。后者很大程度上要归功于塞尔维亚,以及塞尔维亚主办的人造卫星。

我会不遗余力地冒昧做几个预测:


-1.俄罗斯在乌克兰正走向彻底的失败。

俄罗斯的计划是一个低能产品,基于一个错误的假设,即乌克兰人对俄罗斯钟情好感,他们的军队会在俄罗斯入侵后立即崩溃。俄罗斯士兵显然为他们在基辅的胜利游行携带了礼服制服,而不是额外的弹药和口粮。

普京此时已将其整个军队的大部分投入到这次行动中--没有庞大的储备部队可以被他调用来增加战斗力。俄罗斯军队被困在乌克兰的各个城市之外,他们面临着巨大的供应问题和乌克兰的不断攻击。(画外音:芭比Q了)


2.俄军阵列的崩溃可能是突然和灾难性的,而不是通过消耗战慢慢发生。

野战中的军队将达到一个既不能补给也不能撤退的地步,士气也会蒸发全无。这至少在北方是如此;俄国人在南方做得更好,但如果北方崩溃,南方的军队将很难维持。(画外音:完犊子了)


3. 在俄军崩溃的情况发生之前,没有任何用外交谈判解决战争的可能性,因为鉴于俄罗斯和乌克兰目前各自所遭受的损失,没有任何可以想象的折中方案能让他们接受。


4.联合国安理会再次被证明是无用的。

唯一有帮助的是联合国大会投票,这有助于识别世界上的存心不良或推诿责任的作为方。(画外音:“破产了”吧)


5. 拜登政府不宣布禁飞区或帮助转送波兰米格机的决定都是好的;他们在一个非常情绪化的时期保持了清醒。

让乌克兰人自己打败俄罗斯人要好得多,使莫斯科失去了北约攻击他们的借口,同时也避免了所有明显的战争升级可能性。特别是波兰的米格机不会给乌克兰的作战能力增色多少。更重要的是持续供应标枪、毒刺、TB2s、医疗用品、通讯设备和情报共享。我认为,乌克兰部队已经获得北约在乌克兰境外的情报部门的引导了。


6.当然,乌克兰所付出的代价是巨大的。

-loading- -loading--loading-


对乌克兰受到的最大的损害是由俄军的火箭弹和大炮造成的,无论是波兰提供米格机还是北约设立禁飞区都无法对此有多大的阻止。唯一能阻止屠杀的是击败地面上的俄罗斯军队。


UfqiLong

7.普京不会在他的军队被击败后幸存下来。

他得到支持是因为他被认为是一个强人;一旦他表现出无能并被剥夺了胁迫他人的权力,他还有什么价值呢?(画外音:估计叫什么帝也都没用了)


8. 入侵已经对世界各地的民粹主义者造成了巨大的伤害,在袭击之前,他们一致表示同情普京。

这包括萨尔维尼、博尔索纳罗、泽莫尔、勒庞、奥尔班,当然还有特朗普。此次战争中的政治表现暴露了他们公开的威权主义倾向。(画外音:打醒了本来已昏昏欲睡一直搞绥靖的世界了:)


9. 到目前为止,这场战争对中国来说是一个很好的教训。

与俄罗斯一样,中国在过去十年中建立了看似高科技的军事力量,但他们没有作战经验。俄罗斯空军糟糕的表现很可能会被中国人民解放军空军复制,后者同样没有管理复杂空中作战的经验。我们可能希望,中国领导人不会像俄罗斯人在考虑未来对台湾采取行动时那样,对自己的能力自欺欺人。

10. 希望台湾自己会意识到,有必要像乌克兰人那样做好战斗准备,恢复征兵制度。让我们不要过早地失败。

11. 土耳其无人机将成为畅销书。

12. 俄罗斯的失败将使“自由的新诞生”成为可能,并让我们摆脱对全球民主衰落的恐惧。

感谢一群勇敢的乌克兰人,1989年的精神将永存。



----


English (original)

----

Preparing for Defeat


I’m writing this from Skopje, North Macedonia, where I’ve been for the last week teaching one of our Leadership Academy for Development courses. Following the Ukraine war is no different here in terms of available information, except that I’m in an adjacent time zone, and the fact that there is more support for Putin in the Balkans than in other parts of Europe. A lot of the latter is due to Serbia, and Serbia's hosting of Sputnik.

I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:

Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.


-loading- -loading--loading-


UfqiLong

The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors.
The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.
The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, which neither MiGs nor a no-fly zone can do much about. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground.


Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?
The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.


The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan.


Hopefully Taiwan itself will wake up as to the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done, and restore conscription. Let’s not be prematurely defeatist.
Turkish drones will become bestsellers.


A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.




+福山 +斯坦福大学 +乌克兰 +俄罗斯 +预测

本页Url

↖回首页 +当前续 +尾续 +修订 +评论✍️


👍7 仁智互见 👎0
  • 还没有评论. → +评论
  • -loading- -loading- -loading-


    🔗 连载目录

    🤖 智能推荐

    苏联的四大谎言

    威权政权的致命弱点

    北约组织关于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的五个问题的回应

    俄罗斯侵略乌克兰战争下一座乌克兰小镇的消亡 俄罗斯侵略乌克兰战争下一座乌克兰小镇的消亡

    新冠肺炎疫情中后期的共存派与清零派-2 新冠肺炎疫情中后期的共存派与清零派-2

    多国回应约翰逊辞职:有人“伤心”,有人“不关心” 多国回应约翰逊辞职:有人“伤心”,有人“不关心” 2

    扎波罗热核电站遭到炮击 俄乌互指对方制造袭击 0

    果然,签字还没满一天,这两国又打起来了! 果然,签字还没满一天,这两国又打起来了! 0

    最新动态:俄黑海舰队总部遭乌无人机袭击 乌方指责俄方用港口运走乌克兰粮食 0

    俄乌两线交战持续升级 美方提出交换囚犯计划 0

    俄乌局势进展: 从乌克兰出发的首艘运粮船抵土 俄裁定“亚速营”为恐怖组织 0

    哪型装备才是未来战场上的“作战之王”? 曹卫东:是使用装备的人! 哪型装备才是未来战场上的“作战之王”? 曹卫东:是使用装备的人! 0

    俄乌冲突后首艘乌克兰运粮船起运!外媒:船运公司需评估水雷等风险 0

    伟伟道来 第160天,俄乌冲突的五道护栏 伟伟道来 第160天,俄乌冲突的五道护栏 0

    俄乌战火中,黑海粮食运输协议能有效执行吗? 0

    美媒:乌克兰酝酿“大规模反攻”,试图重新夺回南部地区 0

    首战乌克兰的俄罗斯“产品 首战乌克兰的俄罗斯“产品 0

    世界周刊丨“粮道”与“气路”不通 对俄制裁使欧美自食恶果 0

    总统遭袭,嫌疑人被捕!俄黑海舰队司令部被偷袭,油企三巨头赚疯了… 总统遭袭,嫌疑人被捕!俄黑海舰队司令部被偷袭,油企三巨头赚疯了… 0

    -loading- -loading- -loading-


    🔥 相关精选

    梅德韦杰夫发了张“乌克兰未来地图”… 梅德韦杰夫发了张“乌克兰未来地图”… 0

    接下来这一周,世界最受关注的三件事! 0

    突发!超1900人死亡,这国拉响警报!美国会通过2800亿美元法案,商务部回应!德国遭遇危机,什么情况? 0

    俄乌冲突爆发后 俄美外长首次通电话说了啥? 俄乌冲突爆发后 俄美外长首次通电话说了啥? 0

    俄罗斯:已夺取亚速海主导权和对黑海西北部的控制权! 0

    俄乌冲突后美俄外长首次电话会晤:坦诚但是无进展 俄乌冲突后美俄外长首次电话会晤:坦诚但是无进展 0

    中方呼吁构建均衡有效可持续的全球和地区安全架构 0

    俄罗斯:已夺取亚速海主导权和对黑海西北部的控制权 0

    俄乌动态:俄打击乌多地目标,乌否认袭击战俘营地;德国将向乌交付16辆装甲架桥车;俄罗斯外长与美国国务卿通电话 0

    俄媒:美国《纽约时报》称俄在军事冲突中“伤亡7.5万人”,克宫驳斥 0

    最新动态:俄方说摧毁100多枚“海马斯”多管火箭炮弹药 乌官员说乌军在为发起南部反攻进行初步火力打击 0

    俄媒:乌克兰官员又称若有必要将“毫不犹豫袭击俄领土” 0

    最新动态:俄方说摧毁100多枚“海马斯”多管火箭炮弹药 乌官员说乌军在为发起南部反攻进行初步火力打击 0

    落实黑海港口农产品外运协议仍存变数 0

    改变战局“超级武器”?俄媒:“海马斯”神话已破产 改变战局“超级武器”?俄媒:“海马斯”神话已破产 0

    乌克兰总理:为了过冬,我们要向美国“租借”天然气 乌克兰总理:为了过冬,我们要向美国“租借”天然气 0

    乌克兰一州长称将封锁全城捉与俄方勾结间谍和破坏者 乌克兰一州长称将封锁全城捉与俄方勾结间谍和破坏者 0

    俄乌冲突5个月了,还有解吗? 0

    俄乌局势进展:“北溪 0

    最新动态:乌方计划本周启动粮食外运 俄方说对乌港口打击不影响粮食运输  0

    俄媒披露:美在乌研制“选择性生物武器” 0

    -loading- -loading- -loading-

     


    + 大牛 大牛
    AddToFav   
    新闻 经典 官宣