{"id":3708,"date":"2026-01-04T09:59:11","date_gmt":"2026-01-04T01:59:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/?p=3708"},"modified":"2026-01-04T10:09:00","modified_gmt":"2026-01-04T02:09:00","slug":"dual-ma-lines-for-investments-in-china-p2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/dual-ma-lines-for-investments-in-china-p2\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a \u957f\u7ebf\u770b\u4ef7\u503c \u77ed\u7ebf\u770b\u62e9\u65f6 \u7684\u8bc1\u5238\u6295\u8d44\u57fa\u91d1\u6df7\u5408\u7b56\u7565\u6a21\u578b 2\/2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u5728\u4e0a\u4e00\u8282\uff0c \u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a \u957f\u7ebf\u770b\u4ef7\u503c \u77ed\u7ebf\u770b\u62e9\u65f6 \u7684\u8bc1\u5238\u6295\u8d44\u57fa\u91d1\u6df7\u5408\u7b56\u7565\u6a21\u578b 1\/2<\/a>\uff08 https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/dual-ma-lines-for-investments-in-china\/ \uff09 \uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u5230\u4e24\u4e2a\u8981\u70b9:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A. \u957f\u5468\u671f\u5747\u7ebf 250 \u65e5 \/ 50 \u5468 \uff08 Moving Average 250 Days \uff09\u7684\u8d70\u52bf\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u5b9e\u8d28\u5185\u5728\u4ef7\u503c( Business intrinsic value )\u6700\u4e3a\u5339\u914d<\/strong>\uff1b
B. 250\u65e5\/35\u65e5 \u8fd9\u4e2a\u201c\u957f\u77ed\u7ed3\u5408\u201d\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u57fa\u91d1\u5b9a\u6295\u6216\u5927\u7b14\u7533\u8d2d\u4e2d\u6700\u5177\u5546\u4e1a\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/strong>
\u5b83\u80fd\u8ba9\u4f60\u5728\u4fdd\u6301\u5e74\u5316 13% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5fcd\u53d7\u4e0d\u8d85\u8fc7 16% \u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9488\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u8fd1\u5341\u4e94\u5e74\uff082010 \u2013 2025\uff09\u56de\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u5404\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u90fd\u5927\u5e45\u9886\u5148\u3002
\u53ef\u662f\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5728250\u65e5\u718a\u5e02\u7ebf\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u6f2b\u957f\u7684\u7b49\u5f85\u671f\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u6caa\u6df1300\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u718a\u5e02 2021\u5e748\u6708\u52302024\u5e748\u6708\uff0c\u8fd9\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u5165\u5e02\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002
\u5982\u679c\u662f\u4e00\u540d\u4f53\u91cf\u4e0d\u662f\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\uff0c\u51e0\u5341\u4e07\u51e0\u767e\u4e07\u7684\u7ea7\u522b\u7684\u6563\u6237\uff0c\u8981\u5728\u7b49\u5f85\u4e2d\u5ea6\u8fc7\u6f2b\u957f\u7684\u4e09\u5e74\u7684\u718a\u5e02\u7b49\u5f85\u671f\uff0c\u786e\u662f\u662f\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u79cd\u7a7a\u4ed3\u7684\u5bc2\u5bde\u96be\u8010\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u65e2\u7136 250\u65e5 \u957f\u5468\u671f\u5747\u7ebf\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u4f01\u4e1a\u5185\u5728\u5546\u4e1a\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u7684\u6700\u8d34\u8fd1\u503c\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5982\u679c\u60f3\u7f29\u77ed\u4e00\u4e0b\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u5176\u4ef7\u683c\u504f\u7406\u5185\u5728\u4ef7\u503c\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u5462? \u5982\u679c\u5e0c\u671b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e2d\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u53ef\u4ee5\u59a5\u534f\u6216\u8005\u6298\u4e2d\u7684\u80fd\u591f\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u7b56\u7565\u2014\u2014\u4e5f\u5373\uff0c\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u5728\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a5\u53d7\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6211\u4eec\u7ee7\u7eed\u5c06\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e0e Google Gemini \u8fdb\u884c\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bdd\u9898\u7684\u540e\u7eed\u90e8\u5206\u5185\u5bb9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u7cbe\u51c6\u7684\u8fdb\u9636\u601d\u8003\u3002\u5c06\u957f\u5468\u671f\u7f29\u77ed\u4e3a 55\u65e5\uff08\u5b63\u5ea6\u7ebf\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c\u77ed\u5468\u671f\u7f29\u77ed\u4e3a 25\u65e5\uff08\u6708\u7ebf\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4f60\u5c06\u6574\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u201c\u9897\u7c92\u5ea6\u201d\u4ece\u5e74\u5316\u6218\u7565<\/strong>\u4e0b\u653e\u51cf\u5c0f\u5230\u4e86\u5b63\u5ea6\u6ce2\u6bb5<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u8c03\u6574\u4f1a\u663e\u8457\u6539\u53d8\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u201c\u6027\u683c\u201d\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e \u4e2d\u8bc1\u504f\u80a1\u57fa\u91d1\u6307\u6570\uff08H11021<\/a>\uff0c https:\/\/xueqiu.com\/S\/CSI930950 \uff09\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u56de\u6d4b\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
\u4e2d\u8bc1\u504f\u80a1\u57fa\u91d1\u6307\u6570 2018-2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

1. \u6838\u5fc3\u56de\u6d4b\u6307\u6807\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff1a\u301055\/25 \u7ec4\u5408\u3011 vs. \u3010250\/35 \u7ec4\u5408\u3011<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u6ce8\uff1a<\/strong> \u8fd9\u91cc\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7684\u662f\u4f60\u65b0\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u4e2d\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u6bb5\u6a21\u578b (55\/25)\u201d\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u4e4b\u524d\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u201c\u957f\u671f\u4ef7\u503c\u6a21\u578b (250\/35)\u201d\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u6307\u6807\u9879\u76ee<\/strong><\/td>\u4e2d\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u6bb5 (55\u65e5+25\u65e5)<\/strong><\/td>\u957f\u671f\u4ef7\u503c (250\u65e5+35\u65e5)<\/strong><\/td>\u5dee\u5f02\u89e3\u6790<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
\u4ea4\u6613\u9891\u7387 (\u6b21\/\u5e74)<\/strong><\/td>18 – 25 \u6b21<\/strong><\/td>4 – 6 \u6b21<\/strong><\/td>55\/25 \u4ea4\u6613\u6781\u4e3a\u9891\u7e41<\/td><\/tr>
\u5e74\u5316\u6536\u76ca\u7387<\/strong><\/td>\u7ea6 8.5% – 10.0%<\/td>\u7ea6 12.5% – 14.0%<\/strong><\/td>\u957f\u671f\u6a21\u578b\u6536\u76ca\u66f4\u539a<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u6700\u5927\u56de\u64a4 (MDD)<\/strong><\/td>-10% \u81f3 -12%<\/strong><\/td>-16% \u81f3 -18%<\/td>55\/25 \u5728\u9632\u5b88\u4e0a\u582a\u79f0\u9876\u7ea7<\/td><\/tr>
\u5e74\u5316\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387<\/strong><\/td>\u7ea6 9.5%<\/strong><\/td>\u7ea6 11.5%<\/td>55\/25 \u66f2\u7ebf\u6781\u5176\u5e73\u6ed1<\/td><\/tr>
\u590f\u666e\u6bd4\u7387<\/strong><\/td>0.65<\/td>0.95<\/strong><\/td>250\/35 \u7684\u6548\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8<\/td><\/tr>
\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u635f\u8017<\/strong><\/td>\u6781\u9ad8 (\u5e74\u5316\u7ea6 4%-6%)<\/strong><\/td>\u6781\u4f4e (\u5e74\u5316 <1%)<\/td>\u8fd9\u662f 55\/25 \u7684\u81f4\u547d\u4f24<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
\u53cc\u7ebf\u7b56\u7565 \u57fa\u91d1\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u6d4b\u4e0d\u540c\u5468\u671f\u7ec4\u5408\u5bf9\u6bd4 250\/35 vs. 55\/25
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2. \u6df1\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\uff1a55\/25 \u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u4f18\u7f3a\u70b9<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u4f18\u70b9\uff1a\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u63a7\u5236\u529b<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
  • \u7075\u654f\u5ea6\uff1a<\/strong> 55\/25 \u7ec4\u5408\u5bf9\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u611f\u77e5\u6781\u5176\u654f\u9510\u3002\u5728 2015 \u5e74 6 \u6708\u30012021 \u5e74\u5e74\u521d\u8fd9\u79cd\u5feb\u901f\u7b51\u9876\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c55\/25 \u80fd\u591f\u6bd4\u957f\u671f\u6a21\u578b\u63d0\u65e9 2-3 \u5468<\/strong> \u5168\u90e8\u79bb\u573a\u3002<\/li>
  • \u907f\u9707\u6548\u679c\uff1a<\/strong> \u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u4f60\u8eb2\u8fc7\u6240\u6709\u7684\u201c\u6b21\u7ea7\u6298\u8fd4\u6d6a\u201d\uff08\u5373\u90a3\u4e9b\u6301\u7eed 1-2 \u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u8c03\u6574\uff09\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u7d20\u8d28\u8f83\u5f31\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5fcd\u53d7\u8d26\u6237\u8d85\u8fc7 15% \u7684\u56de\u64a4\uff0c55\/25 \u662f\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u201c\u907f\u98ce\u6e2f\u201d\u3002<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    \u7f3a\u70b9\uff1aA \u80a1\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u201c\u9891\u7e41\u5272\u8089\u201d\u6548\u5e94<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    • \u9707\u8361\u5e02\u7684\u5c60\u5bb0\u573a\uff1a<\/strong> A \u80a1\u5e02\u573a\u7ea6 70% \u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5904\u4e8e\u9707\u8361\u5e02\u300255\u65e5\u7ebf\u548c25\u65e5\u7ebf\u7531\u4e8e\u79bb\u4ef7\u683c\u592a\u8fd1\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u201c\u91d1\u53c9\u4e70\u5165\u540e\u7acb\u523b\u6b7b\u53c9\u201d\u7684\u7a98\u5883\u3002<\/li>
    • \u6536\u76ca\u78e8\u635f\uff1a<\/strong> \u56de\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c55\/25 \u7b56\u7565\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u6536\u76ca\u5176\u5b9e\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46**\u6263\u9664\u57fa\u91d1\u7533\u8d4e\u8d39\uff08\u7279\u522b\u662f\u6301\u6709\u4e0d\u6ee1 30 \u5929\u7684\u8d4e\u56de\u8d39\uff09**\u540e\uff0c\u51c0\u6536\u76ca\u4f1a\u5927\u5e45\u7f29\u6c34\u3002<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      3. \u6838\u5fc3\u53d1\u73b0\uff1a\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u533a\u522b<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
      1. 55\/25 \u7b56\u7565\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff1a<\/strong> \u5b83\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u201c\u9ad8\u9891\u7684\u5c0f\u989d\u635f\u5931\u201d\u3002\u4f60\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u8d26\u6237\u7ecf\u5e38\u7531\u4e8e\u6b62\u635f\u800c\u51fa\u73b0 1%-2% \u7684\u5c0f\u989d\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u9003\u5f97\u5feb\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u8d85\u8fc7 10% \u7684\u5927\u8dcc\u3002<\/li>
      2. 250\/35 \u7b56\u7565\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff1a<\/strong> \u5b83\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u201c\u6301\u4ed3\u65f6\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u56de\u64a4\u201d\u3002\u5b83\u80fd\u8ba9\u4f60\u62ff\u4f4f\u5927\u6ce2\u6bb5\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u89c1\u9876\u56de\u843d\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u773c\u7741\u7741\u770b\u7740\u5229\u6da6\u7f29\u6c34 10% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u624d\u4f1a\u89e6\u53d1\u5356\u70b9\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        4. \u7ec8\u6781\u56de\u6d4b\u63a8\u8bba\uff1a\u54ea\u4e2a\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u4f60\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

        \u6839\u636e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u51fa\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e24\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u5e94\u7528\u573a\u666f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u573a\u666f A\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6301\u6709\u7684\u662f\u201cC\u7c7b\u4efd\u989d\u201d\u57fa\u91d1\u6216ETF\uff08\u4f4e\u8d39\u7387\uff09<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n