{"id":3631,"date":"2025-08-11T12:21:36","date_gmt":"2025-08-11T04:21:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/?p=3631"},"modified":"2025-08-11T12:32:21","modified_gmt":"2025-08-11T04:32:21","slug":"stock-price-predictable-p2-of-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/stock-price-predictable-p2-of-3\/","title":{"rendered":"\u80a1\u4ef7\u6bcf\u65e5\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u7814\u7a76: \u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u8fa9\u8bc1\u7edf\u4e00 2\/3"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u4e0a\u63a5\u7b2c 1\/3 \u90e8\u5206:
\u80a1\u4ef7\u6bcf\u65e5\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u7814\u7a76: \u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u8fa9\u8bc1\u7edf\u4e00 1\/3<\/a> , https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/stock-price-predictable\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\u56db\u3001\u73b0\u5b9e\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u7684\u6210\u56e0\u5206\u6790<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

4.1 \u5e02\u573a\u5fae\u89c2\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u5e02\u573a\u5fae\u89c2\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u51fa\u73b0\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. \u975e\u540c\u6b65\u4ea4\u6613\u6548\u5e94<\/strong>\uff1a\u7531\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0d\u540c\u6b65\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u57fa\u4e8e\u6536\u76d8\u4ef7\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5e8f\u5217\u51fa\u73b0\u865a\u5047\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027(20)<\/a>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u5728\u67d0\u4e00\u5929\u6ca1\u6709\u4ea4\u6613\u65f6\uff0c\u5176\u6536\u76d8\u4ef7\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u53cd\u6620\u6700\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5e8f\u5217\u51fa\u73b0\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u504f\u5dee(20)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
  2. \u4e70\u5356\u4ef7\u5dee\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e70\u5356\u4ef7\u5dee\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u51fa\u73b0\u8d1f\u7684\u4e00\u9636\u81ea\u76f8\u5173(20)<\/a>\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5f53\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u4ece\u4e70\u5165\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u5230\u5356\u51fa\u4ef7\u6216\u4ece\u5356\u51fa\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u5230\u4e70\u5165\u4ef7\u65f6\uff0c\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u79cd “\u53cd\u5f39” \u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u76f8\u90bb\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u51fa\u73b0\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173(20)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
  3. \u4ea4\u6613\u89c4\u6a21\u4e0e\u4ef7\u683c\u538b\u529b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5927\u989d\u4ea4\u6613\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u6682\u65f6\u6027\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u504f\u79bb\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u53c8\u5411\u57fa\u672c\u4ef7\u503c\u56de\u5f52\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u8d1f\u7684\u81ea\u76f8\u5173(20)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
  4. \u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u5bfc\u7684\u5ef6\u8fdf<\/strong>\uff1a\u4fe1\u606f\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u4f20\u5bfc\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u540c\u80a1\u7968\u5bf9\u76f8\u540c\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u5b58\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027(22)<\/a>\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    4.2 \u6295\u8d44\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0e\u5fc3\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    \u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u5fc3\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u51fa\u73b0\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u539f\u56e0\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1. \u5904\u7f6e\u6548\u5e94<\/strong>\uff1a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u8fc7\u65e9\u5356\u51fa\u76c8\u5229\u80a1\u7968\u800c\u957f\u671f\u6301\u6709\u4e8f\u635f\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u76c8\u5229\u80a1\u7968\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\u3001\u4e8f\u635f\u80a1\u7968\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u6b63\u7684\u81ea\u76f8\u5173(2)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
    2. \u52a8\u91cf\u8ffd\u9010\u884c\u4e3a<\/strong>\uff1a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u8ffd\u9010\u8868\u73b0\u826f\u597d\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u80a1\u4ef7\u51fa\u73b0\u8d8b\u52bf\u6027\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u6b63\u7684\u81ea\u76f8\u5173(3)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
    3. \u7f8a\u7fa4\u6548\u5e94<\/strong>\uff1a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6a21\u4eff\u884c\u4e3a\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5e02\u573a\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u5ea6\u53cd\u5e94\u548c\u53cd\u5e94\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f(2)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
    4. \u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee<\/strong>\uff1a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u5982\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u542f\u53d1\u3001\u951a\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\u7b49\uff0c\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5bf9\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u8bef\u5224\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f(2)<\/a>\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      4.3 \u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u64ad\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u6548\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

      \u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u548c\u4f20\u64ad\u65b9\u5f0f\u5bf9\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u5f71\u54cd\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      1. \u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>\uff1a\u91cd\u5927\u4fe1\u606f\uff08\u5982\u653f\u7b56\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u516c\u53f8\u5e76\u8d2d\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u707e\u5bb3\u7b49\uff09\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u591a\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u51fa\u73b0\u76f8\u5173\u6027(1)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
      2. \u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u83b7\u53d6\u548c\u5904\u7406\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4fe1\u606f\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u662f\u6e10\u8fdb\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u77ac\u95f4\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f(7)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
      3. \u4fe1\u606f\u5c42\u7ea7\u7ed3\u6784<\/strong>\uff1a\u4fe1\u606f\u5f80\u5f80\u4ee5\u5c42\u7ea7\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u5f71\u54cd\u5c11\u6570\u77e5\u60c5\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u9010\u6e10\u6269\u6563\u5230\u6574\u4e2a\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u80a1\u4ef7\u51fa\u73b0\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u53d8\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f(22)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
      4. \u91d1\u878d\u79d1\u6280\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>\uff1a\u91d1\u878d\u79d1\u6280\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u65b9\u5f0f\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u6548\u7387\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u9648\u826f\u94f6\u7b49\u4eba (2025) \u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u79d1\u6280\u5173\u6ce8\u663e\u8457\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u80a1\u4ef7\u540c\u6b65\u6027\uff0c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u516c\u53f8\u7279\u8d28\u4fe1\u606f\u878d\u5165\u80a1\u4ef7\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u76f8\u5173\u6027(7)<\/a>\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        4.4 \u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u73af\u5883\u56e0\u7d20<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

        \u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u5883\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        1. \u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6548\u7387\u548c\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316(10)<\/a>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5e7f\u53d1\u5b8f\u89c2\u56e2\u961f (2025) \u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c2025 \u5e74\u4e2d\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e02\u6b63\u5411\u8054\u52a8\u5927\u5e45\u51cf\u5f31\u81f3 “\u4f4e\u76f8\u5173” \u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4e07\u5f97\u5168 A \u65e5\u6da8\u8dcc\u5e45\u4e0e\u6807\u666e 500 \u65e5\u6da8\u8dcc\u5e45\u7684 DCC \u76f8\u5173\u6027\u4ece 2024 \u5e74 10 \u6708\u521d\u7684 0.14 \u964d\u81f3 2025 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\u7684 0.03(10)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
        2. \u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027<\/strong>\uff1a\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52a8\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u60c5\u7eea\u5f80\u5f80\u66f4\u52a0\u6781\u7aef\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u80a1\u4ef7\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u5ea6\u53cd\u5e94\u548c\u53cd\u5e94\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002<\/li>
        3. \u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u72b6\u51b5<\/strong>\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4ef7\u683c\u53d1\u73b0\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u4fe1\u606f\u878d\u5165\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6548\u7387(20)<\/a>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cCampbell \u7b49\u4eba (1992) \u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u4e0e\u80a1\u7968\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u81ea\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u5448\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u9ad8\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u81ea\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u8f83\u4f4e(20)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
        4. \u653f\u7b56\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316<\/strong>\uff1a\u76d1\u7ba1\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7b49\u5b8f\u89c2\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027(10)<\/a>\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          \u4e94\u3001\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u8fa9\u8bc1\u5173\u7cfb\u5206\u6790<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

          5.1 \u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u62bd\u8c61\u6027\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

          \u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u62bd\u8c61\u6027<\/strong>\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/strong>\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8fa9\u8bc1\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6784\u5efa\u901a\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u73b0\u5b9e\u8fdb\u884c\u7b80\u5316\u548c\u62bd\u8c61\uff0c\u5ffd\u7565\u6b21\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u805a\u7126\u6838\u5fc3\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8bbe\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u7b80\u5316\u548c\u62bd\u8c61\u7684\u4f53\u73b0\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7b80\u5316\u4f7f\u5f97\u590d\u6742\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5206\u6790\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u5bfc\u81f4\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u5e02\u573a\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \u73b0\u5b9e\u5e02\u573a\u5219\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u5ea6\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u591a\u79cd\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5171\u540c\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5e02\u573a\u5fae\u89c2\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\u3001\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u64ad\u3001\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u5883\u7b49\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u51fa\u73b0\u5404\u79cd\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u73b0\u5b9e\u5e02\u573a\u8fdc\u975e\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u6240\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          5.2 \u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u5728\u8fde\u63a5\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

          \u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u5728\u8fde\u63a5\u7406\u8bba\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e4b\u95f4\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          1. \u7406\u8bba\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u68c0\u9a8c<\/strong>\uff1a\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e3a\u68c0\u9a8c\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u7b49\u7406\u8bba\u5047\u8bbe\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5ba2\u89c2\u5de5\u5177(5)<\/a>\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u5b9e\u9645\u5e02\u573a\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5224\u65ad\u7406\u8bba\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u5426\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u76f8\u7b26\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u76f8\u7b26(5)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
          2. \u89c4\u5f8b\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u4e0e\u63cf\u8ff0<\/strong>\uff1a\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u548c\u63cf\u8ff0\u73b0\u5b9e\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u89c4\u5f8b\u548c\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5982\u52a8\u91cf\u6548\u5e94\u3001\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u7b49(3)<\/a>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u73b0\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6311\u6218\u4e86\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u6784\u5efa\u66f4\u8d34\u8fd1\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4f9d\u636e(3)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
          3. \u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6821\u51c6\u4e0e\u6539\u8fdb<\/strong>\uff1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u6821\u51c6\u548c\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u73b0\u5b9e\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5f15\u5165\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u6761\u4ef6\u5f02\u65b9\u5dee (ARCH) \u6216\u5e7f\u4e49\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u6761\u4ef6\u5f02\u65b9\u5dee (GARCH) \u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u805a\u7c7b\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/li>
          4. \u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u5dee\u8ddd\u7684\u91cf\u5316<\/strong>\uff1a\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u91cf\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u5e02\u573a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f9d\u636e\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u81ea\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u3001R\u00b2 \u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u7b49\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4f30\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7a0b\u5ea6(20)<\/a>\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            5.3 \u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u5dee\u8ddd\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u6f14\u53d8<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

            \u7406\u8bba\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u5e76\u975e\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u52a8\u6001\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            1. \u5e02\u573a\u6548\u7387\u7684\u63d0\u5347<\/strong>\uff1a\u968f\u7740\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u64ad\u6280\u672f\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6548\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7f29\u5c0f(7)<\/a>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u79d1\u6280\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u53ef\u80fd\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u5feb\u5730\u878d\u5165\u80a1\u4ef7\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027(7)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
            2. \u65b0\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u51fa\u73b0<\/strong>\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u73af\u5883\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u65b0\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u73b0\u8c61\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u6269\u5927\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd(10)<\/a>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u9ad8\u9891\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5174\u8d77\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\u5e02\u573a\u5fae\u89c2\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u65b0\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f\u51fa\u73b0(14)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
            3. \u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8fdb\u5316<\/strong>\uff1a\u968f\u7740\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u548c\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u8fdb\u5316\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u53ef\u80fd\u7f29\u5c0f(17)<\/a>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cGhoudi \u7b49\u4eba (2024) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5e7f\u4e49\u8bef\u5dee\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u6355\u6349\u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u590d\u6742\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb(17)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
            4. \u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u6027<\/strong>\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u53d8\u5316\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u6001\u548c\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u5dee\u8ddd\u7684\u53d8\u5316(14)<\/a>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5957\u5229\u673a\u4f1a\u88ab\u53d1\u73b0\u548c\u5229\u7528\uff0c\u5176\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e “\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u81ea\u6bc1” \u5047\u8bf4\u4e00\u81f4(14)<\/a>\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

              5.4 \u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u8fa9\u8bc1\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u6846\u67b6<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

              \u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u89e3\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u8fa9\u8bc1\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              1. \u7406\u8bba\u4f5c\u4e3a\u57fa\u51c6<\/strong>\uff1a\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u6a21\u578b\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u89e3\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6027\u8d28\u548c\u8fd0\u884c\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/li>
              2. \u73b0\u5b9e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u68c0\u9a8c<\/strong>\uff1a\u73b0\u5b9e\u5e02\u573a\u6570\u636e\u662f\u68c0\u9a8c\u7406\u8bba\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u8bd5\u91d1\u77f3\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5b9e\u8bc1\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u65ad\u5b8c\u5584\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/li>
              3. \u5dee\u8ddd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u673a\u9047<\/strong>\uff1a\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u4e3a\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u5b9e\u8df5\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u673a\u9047\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u65ad\u63a2\u7d22\u65b0\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5(3)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
              4. \u591a\u5143\u89c6\u89d2\u7684\u7efc\u5408<\/strong>\uff1a\u7406\u89e3\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u9700\u8981\u7efc\u5408\u8003\u8651\u591a\u79cd\u7406\u8bba\u89c6\u89d2\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u5fae\u89c2\u7ed3\u6784\u7406\u8bba\u7b49(2)<\/a>\u3002<\/li>
              5. \u52a8\u6001\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u8ffd\u6c42<\/strong>\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u5f53\u8ffd\u6c42\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u65e2\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5206\u4f9d\u8d56\u7b80\u5316\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5ffd\u89c6\u7406\u8bba\u5bf9\u7406\u89e3\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u6307\u5bfc\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

                \uff08\u672a\u5b8c\u5f85\u7eed 3\/3: https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/stock-price-predictable-p3-of-3\/<\/a> \uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                \n\n\n\n

                <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                \u4e0a\u63a5\u7b2c 1\/3 \u90e8\u5206:\u80a1\u4ef7\u6bcf\u65e5\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u7814\u7a76: \u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u8fa9\u8bc1\u7edf\u4e00 1\/ … \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3631"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3631"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3631\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3637,"href":"https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3631\/revisions\/3637"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3631"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3631"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3631"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}