{"id":2199,"date":"2020-03-23T19:35:14","date_gmt":"2020-03-23T11:35:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/?p=2199"},"modified":"2020-03-25T22:33:51","modified_gmt":"2020-03-25T14:33:51","slug":"us-1929-economic-crisis-2020-stock-shock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ufqi.com\/blog\/us-1929-economic-crisis-2020-stock-shock\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5199\u51991929\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u8427\u6761\u4e0e2020\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u5927\u8dcc"},"content":{"rendered":"

2020\u5e74\u521d\u5c31\u6ce8\u5b9a\u4e86\u8fd9\u662f\u4e0d\u5e73\u51e1\u7684\u5e9a\u5b50\u5e74\u3002\u8de8\u5e74\u7684\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u75ab\u60c5\u5728\u5168\u7403\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u53e0\u52a0\u6c99\u6ee9\u4e0e\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u534f\u8bae\u8c08\u5d29\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u5927\u8dcc\u2014\u2014\u5c31\u662f\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002
\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u622a\u81f3\u76ee\u524d\uff082020Mar22\uff09\u53ea\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u4e94\u6b21\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u7194\u65ad\uff0c\u800c2020\u5e743\u6708\u7684\u8fd9\u4e24\u5468\u5185\uff0c\u5c31\u5360\u4e86\u5176\u4e2d\u56db\u6b21\u3002\u6d3b\u4e8680\u591a\u5c81\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5927\u5e08\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\u8bf4\uff0c\u6d3b\u4e86\u90a3\u4e48\u4e45\u6b64\u524d\u53ea\u89c1\u8fc7\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u8bdd\u97f3\u672a\u843d\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u3001\u7b2c\u56db\u6b21\u548c\u7b2c\u4e94\u6b21\u63a5\u8e35\u800c\u81f3\uff0c\u7978\u4e0d\u5355\u884c\uff01
\u6240\u4ee5\u5176\u707e\u96be\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8fdc\u8d85\u8fc72008\u5e74\u7684\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u4e0e1929\u5e74\u7684\u5927\u8427\u6761\u76f8\u63d0\u5e76\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5173\u6ce8\u548c\u5b66\u4e60\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u9010\u6e10\u5f62\u6210\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u7684\u53f2\u524d\u8ba4\u77e5\uff1a… — \u7ecf\u6d4e\u6269\u5f20 — \u751f\u4ea7\u8fc7\u5269\u00a0 — \u4e0d\u5408\u683c\u4fe1\u8d37 — \u4fe1\u8d37\u5371\u673a — ….\uff0c\u00a0\u4ee52008\u5e74\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u4e3a\u84dd\u672c\uff0c\u6211\u5927\u81f4\u7ed8\u5236\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5468\u671f\u6027\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u8fd1\u51e0\u5e74\u6765\u7814\u8bfb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8bfb\u7269\u7684\u5fc3\u5f97\u4f53\u4f1a\u7684\u8bd5\u6c34\u4e4b\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n

1. 1929\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u8427\u6761\u7684\u6210\u56e0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u6216\u8005\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u8427\u6761\u662f\u4ee4\u4eba\u6050\u6016\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u5176\u5371\u5bb3\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0d\u4e9a\u4e8e\u4e00\u573a\u6218\u4e89\u3002\u8d44\u6599\u8bb0\u5f55\u663e\u793a1929\u5e74\u7684\u5927\u8427\u6761\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u95f4\u63a5\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ea6700\u4e07\u4eba\u4e27\u751f\uff0c\u7ea6\u5360\u5176\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u76847%(?)\u3002 2008\u5e74\u7684\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u636e\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u7ea6\u6709 730\u4e07\u5de5\u4f5c\u673a\u4f1a\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u707e\u96be\u53ca\u6b7b\u4ea1\u76ee\u524d\u8fd8\u6ca1\u67e5\u5230\u76f8\u5173\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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\u6839\u636e\u00a0\u6587\u662d\u8c08\u53e4\u8bba\u4eca\uff1a1929\u5e74\u5927\u8427\u6761\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5206\u6790<\/a>\u00a0\u548c\u00a0\u5085\u5fd7\u5f6c<\/a>: \u6d17\u8111\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u2014\u2014\u540e\u6d17\u8111\u65f6\u4ee3<\/a>\u00a0\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u89e3\u6790\u6765\u770b\uff0c1929\u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u8427\u6761\u7684\u89e6\u53d1\u8bf1\u56e0\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u672a\u80fd\u6b63\u786e\u5904\u7f6e\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5316\u89e3\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u540e\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u8427\u6761\u7684\u6839\u672c\u548c\u76f4\u63a5\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

\u201c\u4f5b\u7406\u5fb7\u66fc1941-1943\u5e74\u4e3a\u7f57\u65af\u798f\u653f\u5e9c\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u987e\u95ee\uff0c\u662f\u65b0\u653f\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u4f5b\u7406\u5fb7\u66fc\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e86\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u5f7b\u5e95\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5021\u5bfc\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f5b\u7406\u5fb7\u66fc\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c1929\u5e74\u7684\u5927\u8427\u6761\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u672c\u8d28\u7f3a\u9677\u9020\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5f53\u65f6\u5177\u6709\u53d1\u884c\u8d27\u5e01\u6743\u529b\u7684\u51e0\u5bb6\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u94f6\u884c\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u9020\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u5927\u8427\u6761\u7684\u7f6a\u9b41\u7978\u9996\u4e0d\u662f\u81ea\u7531\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9884\u8fc7\u591a\u9020\u6210\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6700\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d70\u51fa\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u7f57\u65af\u798f\u65b0\u653f\u7684\u529f\u52b3\u3002\uff08\u300a\u81ea\u7531\u9009\u62e9\u300b\u300a\u300a\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e0e\u81ea\u7531\u300b\uff09\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u590d\u76d81929\u5e74\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u592e\u884c\u6216\u8005\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u53ca\u65f6\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u963b\u6b62\u94f6\u884c\u5012\u95ed\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u907f\u514d\u94f6\u884c\u50a8\u6237\u7684\u6324\u5151\u98ce\u6f6e\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u5386\u53f2\u6216\u5e94\u8be5\u6539\u5199\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u7684\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\uff0c\u5728\u00a0 \u201c\u804a\u804a\u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u73b0\u72b6–\u6f5c\u89c4\u5219-2<\/a>\u00a0\u201d \u4e2d\u4e5f\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u4ece\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u5f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6709\u5f02\u5e38\uff0c\u521d\u671f\u662f\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u9884\u671f\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u4e2d\u671f\u662f\u5bf9\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u671f\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u964d\u606f\u51cf\u7a0e\u4f7f\u5f97\u4f01\u4e1a\u878d\u8d44\u6210\u672c\u964d\u5230\u6700\u4f4e\u3002\u81f3\u4e8e\u5f3a\u52bf\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9884\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u4ee5\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u6d3b\u52a8\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u5219\u4e0d\u662f\u975e\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u59cb\u7ec8\u662f\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\uff0c\u5bf9\u5784\u65ad\u7684\u8b66\u60d5\uff0c\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u7684\u82db\u523b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u8425\u9020\u516c\u5f00\u3001\u516c\u5e73\u3001\u81ea\u7531\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u8425\u5546\u73af\u5883\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u5219\u4f1a\u6c34\u5230\u6e20\u6210\uff0c\u7eb7\u81f3\u6c93\u6765\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u5468\u671f\u6027\u5206\u6790\u6240\u5f97\uff0c\u5784\u65ad\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u4f1a\u52a0\u5267\u8d2b\u5bcc\u4e24\u7ea7\u5206\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u5b9a\u65f6\u70b8\u5f39\uff1b\u800c\u653e\u677e\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u7684\u4f9d\u89c4\u5408\u6cd5\u5730\u82db\u523b\u76d1\u7ba1\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5c06\u91d1\u878d\u95ee\u9898\u4f20\u5bfc\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n

2. 2008\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u56de\u987e<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u539f\u56e0\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u94f6\u884c\uff0c\u5176\u5ba2\u6237\u5c0f\u4f17\u4e14\u53d7\u4f17\u7fa4\u4f53\u5355\u4e00\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u7eed\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u548c\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u7b49\u8054\u624b\u4e3a\u540e\u7eed\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u65e0\u9650\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u5219\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u963b\u65ad\u4e86\u5371\u673a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4f20\u5230\u5546\u4e1a\uff08\u50a8\u84c4\uff09\u94f6\u884c\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u50cf1929\u5e74\u50a8\u6237\u6324\u5151\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u4e0a\u6765\u770b\uff0c2008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\uff08\u592e\u884c\uff09\u6551\u5e02\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u3002\u4e0e\u4e4b\u5bf9\u5e94\u5730\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7c97\u7565\u5730\u8bc4\u4ef7\u8bf4\uff0c1929\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\uff08\u592e\u884c\uff09\u7684\u6551\u5e02\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\uff0c\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

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3.\u00a02020\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u5927\u8dcc\u89c2\u671b<\/strong><\/p>\n

2020\u5e74\u5e9a\u5b50\u4e4b\u521d\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u75ab\u60c5\u59cb\u53d1\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b66\u6c49\uff0c\u4e00\u65f6\u7a81\u7136\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u5168\u56fd\u5c01\u57ce\u5c01\u56fd\uff0c\u7981\u6b62\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u9645\u4ea4\u5f80\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u4fdd\u969c\u6c11\u751f\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u7269\u8d44\u6d41\u901a\uff0c\u5176\u4f59\u7684\u7686\u5904\u4e8e\u5c01\u505c\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n

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\n

2020\u5e742\u670819\u65e5\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u5728\u5168\u7403\u52a0\u901f\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u60c5\u7eea\u51b2\u51fb\u4e0b\u7f8e\u80a1\u5f00\u542f\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f6e\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u52302\u6708\u672b\u8dcc\u5e4512.3%\u3002
3\u67085\u65e5~3\u67089\u65e5\uff0c\u6cb9\u4ef7\u66b4\u8dcc\u5f15\u53d1\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u8d85\u8dcc12%\uff0c\u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u9ec4\u91d1\u548c\u7f8e\u503a\u6da8\u3002<\/p>\n

3\u670811\u65e5~3\u670818\u65e5\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u66b4\u8dcc\u5f15\u53d1\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6760\u6746\u8d44\u91d1\u88ab\u52a8\u5e73\u4ed3\u3001\u673a\u6784\u6050\u614c\u3001\u56de\u8d2d\u5e02\u573a\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u532e\u4e4f\uff0cFRA-OIS\u5229\u5dee\u7c7b\u4f3c2008\u5e74\u4e00\u6837\u5feb\u901f\u98d9\u5347\u3002
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